Day: April 17, 2022

A migrant was killed by gunfire at the Greece-Turkey border while she and several others attempted to cross a river separating the two countries, Greek police said on April 17.

It wasn’t immediately clear who fired the shot that killed the woman the night before. An autopsy showed that the victim was shot in the back with a small-caliber weapon.

Greek police were patrolling the area where the Evros River, which is called Meric in Turkish, narrows to about 60 to 70 meters (around 200 feet) wide and through which many migrants attempt to cross, according to a police statement and additional information provided to The Associated Press by a police officer on condition of anonymity. The officers spotted numerous migrants on the Turkish side shortly before 9 p.m. on April 16.

Police said 11 people embarked on an inflatable dinghy, and officers directed flashlights at the boat and started shouting “Police. Go back.”

In response, said the police officer, a “barrage” of shots erupted from the Turkish side.

The Greek police patrol couldn’t detect the source of the shots in the darkness and fell to the ground to protect themselves, shooting warning shots in the air, according to the statement which the officer corroborated.

The dinghy came close to the Greek shore and five people disembarked — four made it to the shore while a fifth person was seen floating in the water. Police reached the body with some difficulty, according to the statement, and when they pulled it to the shore they determined that it belonged to a woman and that she was dead.

Police questioned the four survivors — three Pakistani males, one of them a minor (17 years old), and a woman from Eritrea. It wasn’t known what happened to the other six people who tried to cross, but authorities don’t believe they entered Greece.

Coroner Pavlos Pavlidis, who performed the autopsy on the woman in the northeastern city of Alexandroupolis, told the AP that the victim was between the ages of 20 and 25 and that she was most likely from one of the Horn of Africa countries.

She had a wound “in the upper right (back) area. She was shot from close distance and died almost instantly from post-hemorrhagic (blood loss) shock,” Pavlidis said.

Source: Voice of America

World Bank forecasts uneven recovery in Middle East and North Africa

GDP will grow 5.2% by end 2022, but Ukraine war and COVID-19 add to uncertainty

WASHINGTON, Economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are expected to grow by 5.2% in 2022, the fastest rate since 2016, on the back of oil-price windfalls benefitting the region’s oil exporters. But heightened uncertainty surrounds this forecast due to the war in Ukraine and ongoing threats from COVID-19 variants.

Titled “Reality Check: Forecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africa in Times of Uncertainty”, the World Bank’s latest economic update forecasts an uneven recovery as regional averages mask broad differences. Oil-producers will benefit from higher oil prices and vaccination rates as fragile countries lag. But tighter global monetary policy, the unpredictability of the course of the pandemic, ongoing supply chain disruptions and food price hikes raise inflation risks for the entire region.

“The harsh reality is that no one is out of the woods yet. The threat of COVID-19 variants remains and the war in Ukraine has multiplied risks, particularly for the poor who bear the brunt of the increase in food and energy prices. A good dose of realism about the region’s growth prospects during these times of uncertainty is essential,” said Ferid Belhaj, World Bank Vice President for the MENA region. “Managing this wave of uncertainty is a key challenge for policymakers and the World Bank is committed to working alongside governments across the MENA region during this time of compounding risks,” he added.

Currency depreciation in some countries in MENA is already adding to inflationary pressures. Economies facing fiscal and debt vulnerabilities will likely encounter more challenges as they roll over existing debt, or issue new debt amid tighter financing conditions as global central banks aim to contain inflation expectations.

Inflationary pressures created by the pandemic have been exacerbated by the Ukraine war. Countries in the MENA region rely heavily on food imports, including wheat from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in food prices and the higher risk of food insecurity are likely to hurt poor families the most, because the poor tend to spend more of their household budget on food and energy than do rich households. The full extent of the consequences of the war are yet to be determined, but early signs point to a heightening of the economic difficulties already besetting MENA economies, particularly oil-importing middle-income countries.

Despite the projected growth rate of 5.2%, GDP per capita, an indicator of people’s living standards, will barely exceed pre-pandemic levels due to a generally lackluster performance in 2020-2021, the report said. In Gulf Cooperation Council countries, buoyed by the increase in oil prices, GDP per capita is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2022, but will not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2023. In contrast, in 2022, GDP per capita of middle-income oil exporters is projected to grow by 3.0%, and by 2.4% for the region’s oil importers, both barely lifting living standards above pre-pandemic levels. Overall, if these forecasts materialize, 11 out of 17 economies in MENA may not recover to pre-pandemic levels by end of 2022.

Adding to pandemic-related uncertainty, only a third of the middle-income MENA countries have higher vaccination rates than their income peers. As of April 4, 2022, Gulf countries, excluding Oman which has a 57.8% vaccination rate, have an average rate of 75.7%, which is far better than their income peers. But countries like Algeria and Iraq have vaccinated around 13 to 17% of their populations and Yemen and Syria have vaccination rates in the single digits, thus leaving them more exposed to the economic and health consequences of Covid-19 in the near future.

Each MENA Economic Update chooses a special focus area and this April’s edition provides a reality check on growth forecasts over the past decade, including those provided by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the private sector. Economic forecasts are a valuable tool for governments as they prepare for the future, especially during times of uncertainty. The authors found that growth forecasts in the MENA region over the past decade were often inaccurate and overly optimistic when compared to those of other regions. Overly optimistic forecasts can lead to economic contractions down the road. A key driver of forecast uncertainty is the availability and accessibility of quality and timely information, an area where MENA lags behind the rest of the developing world.

“In the current context of global and regional uncertainty, getting the most accurate forecasts possible becomes even more important. Lack of data and limited data openness are risky strategies. Only with better and more transparent data can forecasts, and with them planning and policy formulation, improve,” said Roberta Gatti, World Bank Chief Economist for the MENA region.

Conflict economies such as Libya and Yemen have outdated GDP data, last available for 2014 and 2017 respectively. Only 10 out of the 19 MENA economies covered by the World Bank Group have monthly or quarterly information on industrial production; for the remaining nine, information is not publicly available; and none publish monthly unemployment data. The report provides guidance about how to improve national data systems.

Source: World Bank

A joint military force from Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon said Sunday it had killed more than 100 Islamist insurgents, including 10 commanders, in the past few weeks, as it intensifies a ground and air offensive in the Lake Chad region.

Boko Haram fighters and its splinter Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) group have for more than a decade battled the Nigerian army in a conflict that has sucked in neighboring states.

Multinational Joint Task Force spokesman Colonel Muhammad Dole said troops had ventured deep into enclaves controlled by insurgents in the Lake Chad area and recovered several weapons, food and illicit drugs.

“Within the period of this operation, well over a hundred terrorists have been neutralized, including over 10 top commanders … following intelligence-driven lethal airstrikes in the Lake Chad islands by the combined air task forces,” Dole said.

Dole did not give the period covered by the operation or number of troops killed but said 18 soldiers were injured by improvised explosive devices planted by retreating insurgents.

The Islamist insurgency is concentrated in the northeast of Nigeria and has left thousands dead while driving millions from their homes into camps for internally displaced persons.

Nigeria received a boost after the United States last week approved a nearly $1 billion weapons sale. U.S. lawmakers had put a hold on the deal over concerns about possible human rights abuses by the Nigerian government.

Boko Haram has been on the back foot since the death of its leader, Abubakar Shekau, last year in May during a battle with rival ISWAP. Nigeria says thousands of Boko Haram fighters and their families have surrendered since last year.

Source: Voice of America